US President Donald Trump's initiative to calm down the Lebanon conflict has brought results as he announced a 10-day truce between Israel and Hezbollah that took effect on 17 April. The ceasefire may be extended by mutual agreement if negotiations progress, the State Department reported with the concurrence of Beirut and Tel Aviv.
The agreement was reached following Trump's talks with Lebanese President Joseph Aoun and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Trump has announced his intention to invite the two leaders to the White House for “the first substantive talks since 1983.” Lebanese Prime Minister Nawaf Salam welcomed the outcome, emphasising that a ceasefire was a key goal of the US talks. Netanyahu's response is awaited; he would be figuring out his options.
Trump acted on Lebanon with an eye on his feverish attempt to intensify the negotiations with Tehran and reach a historic deal, which holds the potential to define his foreign policy legacy.
An action-reaction syndrome is involved here, as Tehran refused to participate in the negotiations with the US in Islamabad so long as the carnage continued in Lebanon, and, secondly, it retaliated by closing the Strait of Hormuz, which has profound implications for the world oil market, a spike in gasoline retail price in the US in particular, and, indeed, the future of petrodollar recycling, etc.
Apart from Tehran's expression of profound concern over the suffering of the Shias of Lebanon, who constitute roughly one-third of the country's population (where Muslim sects combined form a majority—approx. two-thirds of the population), Tehran's retaliation was more of a show of “symbiotic oneness” with Hezbollah, the core of the axis of resistance, which had only recently rushed to open a “second front” even as the US-Israel attack on Iran erupted.
It is inconceivable that Israel would have laid down arms in the Lebanese operation without some sort of superhuman nudge from Trump behind closed doors. Equally, Beirut had previously effectively refused direct contact with Israel. According to CNN, President Aoun informed the American and Israeli sides that he did not intend to participate in negotiations with Netanyahu until a lasting ceasefire and a halt to hostilities with Hezbollah were achieved first—putting the cart before the horse as it were. Trump has now got the order changed; the cart is leading the horse.
Thus, consultations between Israeli and Lebanese representatives held in Washington this week failed to produce a breakthrough, as Israel refused to commit to withdrawing troops from southern Lebanon, which Beirut had insisted upon alongside its demand for a ceasefire as a precondition for any substantive negotiations. Following Trump's personal intervention, Aoun now calls the ceasefire a “natural starting point” for initiating direct dialogue.
In Israel too, Netanyahu's cabinet was literally forced to consider Trump's position on de-escalation. The primary objective in the military operations is disarming the Hezbollah movement, which remains unfinished business. However, Netanyahu, while caving in to Trump's pressure, is insisting that Israeli forces would maintain a presence in their positions in southern Lebanon despite the ceasefire.
Israeli media reported that Netanyahu is “stunned and alarmed” by a social media post by Trump no sooner than the ceasefire came into effect, asserting, “Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are PROHIBITED from doing so by the U.S.A. Enough is enough!!!”
Trump doubled down in an interview later, saying, “Israel has to stop. They can't continue to blow buildings up. I am not going to allow it.”
Similarly, at the other end of the spectrum, while Hezbollah earlier point-blank rejected any form of direct negotiations with Israel, Tehran (and the Houthis and Palestinian groups) has positively reacted to the ceasefire development in a reciprocal announcement yesterday that the Strait of Hormuz is open to traffic.
It is tempting to get into a rushed conclusion that Washington and Tehran are acting in tandem, but there could be a grain of truth in it. The point is, the 10-point proposal forwarded by Iran for US-Iran negotiations (which Trump accepted as a “workable basis on which to negotiate and the main framework” for talks with Tehran) had identified cessation of Israeli attacks on Lebanon as an indivisible part of termination of the cycle of unprovoked aggression and retaliatory strikes across the region.
Equally, in a significant move, Pakistan's COAS Field Marshal Asim Munir during his visit to Tehran on Wednesday with the commander of the IRGC, which is in charge of the Strait of Hormuz issue.
Interestingly, prior to Trump's announcement concerning Lebanon, Iran's Majlis Speaker Qalibaf wrote in a post on X the official line that the emergence of a potential ceasefire in Lebanon would be down to “the persistent struggle put up by Hezbollah and other members of the regional Axis of Resistance.” Qalibaf implicitly drew Hezbollah into the orbit of the ceasefire in Lebanon!
Trump's ecstatic response speaks for itself as he wrote on a Truth Social post: “Iran has agreed to never close the Strait of Hormuz again. It will no longer be used as a weapon against the world!”
In the same breath, he also expressed his profound gratitude to Pakistan: “Thank you to Pakistan and its great Prime Minister and Field Marshal, two fantastic people!!!”
A few hours later, Trump took note of China's role: “President Xi is very happy that the Strait of Hormuz is open and rapidly opening. Our meeting in China will be a special one and, potentially, historic. I looked forward to being with President Xi—much will be accomplished!” And he added in another follow-up post, “A GREAT AND BRILLIANT DAY FOR THE WORLD!”
The bottom line is, the tensions in the Strait of Hormuz are easing, and the fog of war is lifting over Hormuz for the US-Iran deal. Sooner rather than later the US’ naval blockade of Iran will become redundant.
Trump has said he would be present at the signing ceremony in Islamabad. If so, Trump may meet Qalibaf, signalling a historic US-Iranian détente. Don't be surprised if the Pakistani hosts make it a grand event in the geopolitics of the region. Trump would love that.
 | A guest post by
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By the time I got to the end of the article TRT or Roya are on Instagram saying Straight is closed lol. Israel out of Gaza, West Bank, Lebanon and Syria. Is the only way peace can be achieved.