Serbians headed to the polls on Sunday as the country anxiously awaited the results of one of the most consequential elections in its recent history. The electoral process follows almost two years of political turmoil after a canopy collapsed at the railway station in Novi Sad, the country’s second-largest city, in northern Serbia.
What authorities initially saw as scattered protests gained strength over the following months and became a student-led movement that has put the government in check.
Early on Sunday, hundreds of people gathered at polling stations as turnout could break records. The early numbers already point to a very different level of mobilisation this time. By 1 pm Central European Time, CRTA (Centre for Research, Transparency and Accountability) estimated turnout at 41.1%, with a margin of error of ±0.9 percentage points. Its 10 am estimate was 19.8%, compared with 9.8% at the same hour in 2023.
The day has not been without incidents. In its latest report, CeSID (Centre for Free Elections and Democracy) said it had received more than 120 reports of irregularities from observers by 11 am. These included problems with the organisation and conduct of voting, violations of ballot secrecy, irregularities in the work of polling boards, and issues with the voter register. Of particular concern were reports of observers being hindered or prevented from entering polling stations.
CRTA’s morning report adds another concern regarding photographing ballots. The organisation said this practice occurred at an estimated 25% of polling stations nationwide and at more than half of polling stations in Belgrade. These figures concern polling stations where the practice was observed, not the proportion of voters who photographed their ballots. CRTA linked the practice to threats to ballot secrecy and possible pressure on voters.
At 9% of polling stations, the same organisation reported a combination of irregularities that could indicate attempts to exercise illegitimate control over voting. These included the unauthorised presence of third parties and interference by observers from some monitoring missions in the work of polling boards. Inconsistent use of the spray used to mark voters was recorded at 12% of polling stations. In Veternik, CRTA filed a police complaint over suspected vote-buying and carousel voting.
In the days leading up to the election, numerous reports already cited possible irregularities and events outside the normal conduct of a democratic vote.
On 24 October, for example, the Belgrade Bar Association issued a statement about arrangements for the Belgrade Higher Court’s registry to receive urgent filings outside normal working hours from that morning. The association interpreted the change as preparation for anticipated election-related detentions.
Tensions could rise at any moment. Information about parallel voter registers and concerns about intimidation remain part of the atmosphere surrounding the vote. Nevertheless, a surprise in the students’ favour should not be ruled out.
Before the election, an Ipsos poll commissioned by the ruling list put Aleksandar Vučić’s list at 47.4%, against 40% for the students. Other polls also placed Vučić ahead. CRTA’s June survey favoured the students, with 44.9% against 35.7% for SNS (Serbian Progressive Party) among decided voters. A more recent survey by NSPM (New Serbian Political Thought), published on 20 October, also placed the students ahead, at 44.5% against 42.7%, according to FoNet.
It’s midday in Belgrade and the city breathes a certain calm. Citizens stand in unprecedented queues while checking their phones for news from other parts of the country and the diaspora that faces countless issues this time. The atmosphere is visibly charged. The silence is leaden, falling over the expectant faces of many.
Stefan, 27, whose name has been changed at his request to protect his identity, tells me, with a certain optimism in his eyes, that regardless of the result, the students have already won. If they secure a majority, they would take control of the National Assembly. A movement carried by the energy of Generation Z would then have channelled anger and frustration into taking the institutions and trying to build a better future.
Stefan speaks of the attention given to demonstrations in France and elsewhere, and of the feeling that Serbia has been forgotten. But it does not matter, he says. They have been here for almost two years. They have brought Vučić, the former president, to the ballot box.
Even if they lose, he believes, they will have a substantial presence in parliament.